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Housing Bubble Busted !!!!!!!!!!
Housing Crashes !!!!!!!!
Dec 2010 : The second leg down in housing has started.
Data updates will now mostly serve as a reference.
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| Year 2002 : $300K ----> Year 2005 : $600K ----> Year 2010 : $200K |
**** The Housing Bubble Graph ****
**** The Houston Model ****
**** Excess Housing ****
Are you thinking this is what is going to happen?
You have come to the Right Place.
During the last housing downturn, the Housing Market Index fell
40 points from a peak of 60 in Dec 1988, bottommed out at 20 in
Jan 1991, over 25 months. In this downturn it has breached that
support level by falling to 18 in Oct 2007. It will continue to
head lower in the coming months.
How low will HMI go this time?
Of the 381 MSA's In OFHEO's 2008-Q1 report, 263 posted year
over year increases, while 118 showed year over year decrease.
Washington DC, Miami, Detroit, Phoenix, Orlando, Los Angeles,
Tampa, Oakland, San Diego, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Las
Vegas and Sacramento were the major metros in a list of 53, that
posted HPI declines of five percent or more from the previous year.
New Orleans, New York, Boston, Cleveland, Nassau, Minneapolis,
San Francisco, San Jose and Providence were the major metros to
post year over year declines of less than five percent in a list
of 65.
Phoenix, Chicago, Seattle and Salt Lake City were the major
metros that posted declines from the previous quarter in the list
of 161.
The Purchase Only Index for California is down 23%, Nevada is
down 20%, Arizona 10% and Florida is down 14.6% from peak.
Per Census Bureau, In the Fourth Quarter of 2008, there were
130.8 Million Homes in the US. Of these, 18.9 Million were Vacant.
That is a whopping 14.4% of all US Homes were sitting empty. 12.2%
in the North East, 13.5% in Mid West, 16.8% in South and 13.3% in
the West.
Is this The Right Kind of Asset to own as Investment?
Most of these vacant homes will be put up for sale, once prices
start to come down. After all these are investments.
The number of New Homes for sale in all stages of construction
was 454K at the end of Apr 2008. But only 47K New Homes were sold
in that month.
The Median Price of New Home rose to 246K in Aug 2007, from
242K in Apr 2007.
The number of completed new homes for sale stood at 181K in Apr
00. With an average price of 321K, that is 58.1 Billion Dollars
worth of inventory, Home Builders were carrying in that month.
Construction started on 92.4K New Homes in the same month.
What does this glut of New Homes mean?
Is the "demand" for housing different from "need" for housing?
Per NAR, the Number of Existing Homes for Resale stood at
4.55 Million in Apr 2008.
4/10/05 : Have Californians Gone Crazy?
6/13/05 : Will The 1992 So Cal Recession Be Repeated?
12/20/05 : Is Another Depression On its's Way?
3/16/06 : Dollar Collapse - Housing History : Is it 1986 or 1929?
7/3/06 : Asset Deflation, Goods Inflation
8/7/06 : ACS - Housing Vacancy Rates
8/25/06 : UHaul Index - California North East Mid West Florida
9/4/06 : Census Bureau - Internal Migration
9/5/06 : Jas Jain - Peak Debt
1/8/07 : How Many Realtors Do We Need?
1/10/07 : Inflation Or Deflation Ahead?
1/24/07 : Census Bureau - Construction Spending Home Improvement
2/15/07 : What Happens In Vegas, (Not Always) Stays In Vegas
3/6/07 : Census Bureau - Completed Unsold New Homes
3/26/07 : New Homes - Lot Size Home Size Price Per Sq. Foot
4/11/07 : "Realtor Free" Real Estate
4/16/07 : Bursting Of Housing Bubble Will Bring The Modern 1930s
5/21/07 : New Housing By Purpose - Starts Completions
9/10/08 : Zillow - Real Estate Market Reports
Finally...
3/23/07 : .... And Two Years Later The Bubble Has Busted
New...
12/18/09 : Interview with Mortgage Calculator
Also Visit : Paper Money Dollar Collapse iTulip Shadow Stats
Roubini's Blog KWaves Mish's Blog
Bubble News : The Bubble Times eFinance Patrick.net
Per Census Bureau, between 2000 and 2006 San Francisco Bay Area
added 116K new residents, while 128K new housing units were built.
Greater Boston area added only 53K new residents but 58K new
housing units were built in the same period.
Send comments/suggestions to
Real Estate Heat Maps For Cities : Zillow.com
Resale Inventory By Markets : Housing Tracker Paper Dinero
UK's Housing Bubble : HousePriceCrashUK.com
Richard Freeman : U.S. Real Estate Bubble Nears Its End (PDF)
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About Me
Name : Somesh Gaur
From : Reno, NV
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