Q1 GDP Growth Falls to 1.3%

Posted: April 27, 2007 at 6:10 am by Somesh

GDP Growth Falls to 1.3%

Residential Investment falls by 17%

What does the Fed do now? Cut rates?

The markets should rally expecting a rate cut.

Note : These are advanced estimates, and are subject to revisions.

This week …

Posted: April 23, 2007 at 6:24 am by Somesh

This week some very important data is gonna come out.

1. 2007-Q1 GDP - April 27th 8:30AM ET
Goldman Sachs forecasting 1.2%, while JP Morgan 1.5%

2. March New Home Sales - Apr 25th 10:00 AM ET

3. NAR’s Existing Homes For Sale - Apr 24th 10:00AM ET
The resale inventory could hit an all time high of just under 4 million.

4. Home Builder Q1 Results

PHM - Wed 25th after market closes
MTH - Wed 25th After Market closes
RYL - Wed 25th after market closes
MDC - Thu 26th after market closes
MHO - Thu 26th
SPF - Fri 27th before market opens
CTX - Mon 30th after market close

CFC - Thu 26th before market

Most likely it will be late evening when I can update the numbers here.

Lady Luck Sours on Las Vegas

Posted: April 21, 2007 at 9:33 am by Somesh

Nevada now has the highest foreclosure rate in nation.

One foreclosure for every 183 households in the month of March.

Once foreclosure central Colorado is now second with 1 in 292.

All this, while the Las Vegas Median has just dropped a mere -3.2%, from a peak of 315K in Mar 06 to 305K in Mar 07.

The price declines will accelerate rapidly as these must sell REO’s start hitting the market in the coming months.

Say No To The Subprime Bail Out.

Posted: April 17, 2007 at 6:02 am by Somesh

Senator Schumer,

I am one of those people who have been shocked to see the speculation in housing for the last few years.

People lying about their incomes on mortgage applications. People buying expensive houses they could not afford.

These people were greedy and trying to make a quick profit. Home was not a place of shelter to them, but a quick scheme to riches.

These people should not be bailed out by my tax dollars. We knew all along that this was a ponzi scheme, and decided not to speculate in the housing bubble.

I urge you to not bail out the greedy at the expense of the prudent. It also sends a wrong message to all other home owners and perspective home buyers. I too will stop paying my mortgage and the government will come rescue me.

Thank You very much.
Somesh Gaur

https://housingbubblebust.com

Please contact your Congressmen and let them know your opinion on this issue.

Lennar Offering 16 Homes in Online Bidding

Posted: April 14, 2007 at 7:40 am by Somesh

Lennar Homes of California, Inc. to Offer 16 Home Closeout Through Online Bidding Event

“Lennar Homes of California has announced plans to sell two Palm Springs, Calif., communities this month through the online real estate bidding system of RealtyBid.com, the nation’s leader in online real estate bidding. Competitive bidding for homes in Marquesa at Terra Lago in North Indio, Calif., and Cielo Paradiso in Rancho Mirage, Calif., via RealtyBid.com will begin Wednesday, April 18th and end on Monday, May 7th.

Marquesa at Terra Lago is a master planned community that includes two 18-hole PGA golf courses at the adjacent Golf Club of Terra Lago and access to a 20-acre private lake and large recreation center. According to Bob Tummolo, regional vice president for the Lennar Palm Springs Division, 80 percent of the homes within Marquesa have been sold. The neighborhood’s remaining 14 three- and four-bedroom homes, originally priced from $419,990 to $459,990, will be sold through RealtyBid.com with starting bids as low $295,000.”

Thatz a good 30% discount from peak prices. And as much of a potential loss for those who bought at the peak. It will be interesting to see how high the bids actually go. Past auctions in Naples, San Diego and Sacramento have not been very kind to the sellers.

“This is looking like 1990 all over again”

Posted: April 10, 2007 at 6:33 am by Somesh

The LA Times has this :

Antelope Valley struggles with memories of ’90s housing crash

“As residential construction flourished in the late 1980s, his company’s ranks swelled to 200 — then shriveled to five when the economy tanked a couple of years later.”

This time the company may not survive the downturn.

“Regional economists say such fears are overblown, pointing out that the job market is much stronger now than it was then.”

Are these economists looking at the amount of debt in the system in 1990 and what it is today? The Housing Market will bring down the rest of the economy with it this time.

Clearly the exurbs are falling harder and ahead of the suburbs.

Sacramento - El Dorado, Placer Counties
San Francisco Bay Area - Solano, Contra Costa Counties
Washington DC - Loudoun County

Started A New Job

Posted: April 6, 2007 at 6:43 am by Somesh

As you may have noticed by the number of postings leading up to March 23, my break is over (Yes I had the time to sift through a few hundred 10Q/10K’s).

I started a new job this week, which will keep me pretty busy. So updates may take longer, and there might be fewer posts for now.

Also because, at this point I think I have put together all the housing market indicators I could think of, on the website.

I try not to duplicate what other bloggers are already doing, and are doing a superb job. I have created a blog roll, and you can follow the links. There is so much to read to about the housing bubble now that it has busted, it is impossible to keep up with every story.

I think to a certain degree my work is also done. The hard work of last two years has paid off. Vindication is already on the way.

I have enjoyed and learnt a lot developing this website, and I am sure you too have.

Feel free to email me any new ideas and suggestions.

Builders Gone Wild !!!

Posted: April 3, 2007 at 6:33 am by Somesh

From AZCentral.com

Three Home Builders Bet On Housing Turn Around

“Three opportunistic home builders are jumping into metro Phoenix’s new-home market, undeterred by the glut of unsold houses and high prices left over from the housing boom.

Newcomers Mattamy Homes of Canada, John Laing Homes of California and Orleans Homebuilders of Pennsylvania say that now is the right time to stake their claim in one of the most competitive housing markets in the country.

They’re grabbing cast-off land at bargain prices from the established players and picking up executive talent with years of experience at local companies.”

What are these smaller builders gonna do different, when the big fish like DHI , CTX , KBH are writing off their Phoenix Land Options/Inventory?

Mattamy and John Laing are private. Orleans is public, and the since January.

Bankrupcy followed by Asset Auctions must be getting closer.

You Read It Here First

Posted: April 1, 2007 at 7:16 am by Somesh

Wall Street Journal Is Reporting :

Comparing Houston’s HPI to San Francisco, you read it here first.
Last year in The Houston Model