AZ, NV And So Cal - Countrywide’s Bermuda Triangle

Posted: February 5, 2008 at 9:34 am by Somesh

From Blown Mortgage (PDF File)

This is the market wise risk assessment by Countrywide.

Higher Risk -> Lower Risk
5 -> 4 -> 3 -> 2 -> 1

AZ Mohave Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ 5
AZ Maricopa Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 5
AZ Pinal Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 5
AZ Yavapai Prescott, AZ 5
CA Merced Merced, CA 5
CA Stanislaus Modesto, CA 5
CA Riverside Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 5
CA San Bernardino Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 5
CA Monterey Salinas, CA 5
CA San Joaquin Stockton, CA 5
FL Volusia Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 5
FL Broward Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL 5
FL Miami-Dade Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL 5
FL Collier Naples-Marco Island, FL 5
FL Charlotte Punta Gorda, FL 5
FL Manatee Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 5
FL Sarasota Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 5
MI Genesee Flint, MI 5
NV Carson City Carson City, NV 5
NV Clark Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 5
NV Storey Reno-Sparks, NV 5
NV Washoe Reno-Sparks, NV 5

HELOC On Hold

Posted: January 31, 2008 at 4:03 pm by Somesh

LA Times is reporting :

“Tens of thousands of homeowners with home equity lines of credit are getting a rude surprise: They’ve been told by their lender that they can no longer take money out on their credit lines because sinking home prices have put them “upside down” on their mortgages.

Countrywide Financial Corp. sent letters to 122,000 customers last week telling them they could no longer borrow against their credit lines because the total debt on the home exceeded the market value of the property. The lender says it is using computer modeling to determine which of its customers would have their cash spigot shut off.”

Tousa Files Bankruptcy

Posted: January 29, 2008 at 12:50 pm by Somesh

Reuters is reporting

“Florida-based home builder TOUSA Inc TOUS.PK said it is filing for protection under Chapter 11, as part of a proposed restructuring, in the wake of the crumbling U.S. housing market.

The filing includes TOUSA Homes Inc, Newmark Homes LP and entities that represent all their brands — Engle Homes, Newmark Homes, Fedrick, Harris Estate Homes and Trophy Homes.”

First of the public builders in this cycle.
Expect to see many more this year and next.

Housing Fire Sale in Idaho

Posted: October 12, 2007 at 12:42 pm by Somesh

Idaho Statesman Reports :

“CBH Homes Meridian sales center reported selling six homes in the first hour of its “Deal of a Lifetime” which started Friday morning and continues through this weekend.

Mega homebuilder Corey Barton hopes to push potential homebuyers off the fence by reducing prices on 200 Treasure Valley homes by up to $70,000.

Barton’s heavily advertised sale is the latest — and perhaps most visible — sign of the Treasure Valley’s struggling housing market. As in other markets nationwide, builders here are slashing prices and adding amenities to lure buyers.

If all 200 homes sell this weekend, Barton’s inventory of 470 unsold homes in Ada and Canyon counties would be cut by 43 percent before property tax bills go out in early November.

Not every sale home will be discounted $70,000. Barton declined to say where the discounted homes are, and he gave no details about how discounts will be meted out.

But he said lists will be available at CBH’s sales centers this weekend.”

Click here for CBH Homes Website and Sale Info

Millenum Tower - Yet Another One…

Posted: October 10, 2007 at 9:16 am by Somesh

This is the Millenium Tower on Fremont & Mission in San Francisco.

58 Stories of Luxury Condos, will be open for occupancy next year.

The developer of The Californian (not yet started), just a few blocks from here may be getting cold feet.

Making Way For Another Mega Project

Posted: August 16, 2007 at 8:26 am by Somesh

This is the corner of 10th & Market in San Francisco on Aug 11. The previous structure has been demolished and the bulldozers are gone. The lot is now waiting for the giant cranes to arrive.

Here is the full scoop from SFCondo.org

It will consist of two buildings sharing a common base and containing approximately 719 dwelling units, approximately 19,000 square feet of commercial space, and a garage with a capacity of up to 668 parking spaces (578 residential spaces and 90 commercial spaces), according to the Business Times.

The taller north tower, at the corner of Tenth and Market Streets, will be 35 stories and approximately 352 feet high with a 12-story, 123-foot-high base along Market Street. The shorter south tower, at the corner of Tenth and Jessie Streets, will be 19 stories and approximately 220 feet high. The two towers will be connected by a nine-story, 93-foot-high base running along Tenth Street. As there are few high-rise buildings nearby, views from 10th and Market should be fantastic.”

And this is what is expected to go up

Image courtesy of SFCondo.org

Redefining San Francisco

Posted: August 13, 2007 at 6:09 am by Somesh

In the last couple of weeks The San Francisco Chronicle has had Several Articles On The Design Proposals For The Transbay Terminal.

On Aug 8th :

“The long-awaited proposals for a new San Francisco skyscraper that would be taller than the Transamerica Pyramid are being unveiled this evening at City Hall - and images obtained by The Chronicle show three towers in the 1,200 foot range that look nothing like the Victorian homes for which the city is known.

There are three competing proposals from three teams that combine well-known architects with deep-pocket development firms. Each includes a design for a new Transbay Terminal at First and Mission streets as well as a high-rise that the winning team would both design and build.

The idea of allowing a super-tall tower is that the sale or lease of the land for the project will spin off money to finance the terminal, which the Transbay Joint Powers Authority — the agency holding the competition — hopes to start building in 2010. “

The redevelopment in the South Of Market District combined with that of Mission Bay. I just don’t think there is a market for so much construction to be absorbed. Be it residential or commercial.

It will be impossible for most people to close on the units which have been reserved on all the other towers that are currently under construction.

Why?

Jumbo loans above 417K have become very expensive and difficult to get.

A year to two from now, San Francisco will be a repeat of what is currently happening in San Diego.

I think it will be a lot worse than San Diego.

I doubt this project will ever break ground, as the proposed construction start date is in 2010.

The city will be forced to shelf this project some time next year.

Hedge Fund Manager Makes 1.7 Billion in 2006 !!!

Posted: August 12, 2007 at 8:25 am by Somesh

From Reuters :

Renaissance Hedge Fund Down 7 pct

“The Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund, a $26 billion-plus hedge fund managed by mathematician James Simons, is down “in the order of 7 percent” for the year through Aug. 8, according to a letter the fund sent to investors on Thursday.

Simons’ success in his other fund, Medallion, has made him among the highest paid managers in the $1.7 trillion industry, taking home an estimated $1.7 billion in 2006.”

My Portfolio is up 185% YTD (Not adjusted for leverage), and I did’nt use any mathematical models.

Just some common sense.

This is a Recap of hedge fund performance from Bloomberg for this year.

Not sure if these numbers are adjusted for leverage.

Mortgage Crunch

Posted: August 9, 2007 at 2:28 pm by Somesh

The San Francisco Chronicle has this on its Front Page today

“Need a mortgage this month? It’s going to be harder - and more expensive - to get one. In the past week, turmoil in the mortgage markets has caused increasing problems for home buyers in the Bay Area and around the nation.Kurt Herrenbruck, a mortgage planner with Fishman Financial Group in Berkeley, saw one client’s financing evaporate in the space of three days last week.

“The client is well-heeled, with (a high credit score), and $500,000 in the bank, making an owner-occupied purchase with a 25 percent down payment,” Herrenbruck said. “He needs a no-doc loan (meaning he cannot provide documents to prove his income) because of an employment hiccup.”

Herrenbruck said Wednesday he found two lenders willing to make a no-document loan. But by Thursday it was down to one. And Friday, when his client’s offer was accepted, there was none. “He can’t buy even though he had the strongest profile of any no-doc: superlative credit, money in the bank and a whopping down payment.”

The story underscores how skittish Wall Street investors are causing a ripple effect that hurts multitudes of people buying or selling houses.” 

  

From Axis@Union To Mozaic

Posted: August 9, 2007 at 7:04 am by Somesh

Last year this new construction was being marketed as Axis Condominiums , By The Union Station Los Angeles.

This year it has a “Now Leasing” sign on it.

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