San Francisco Bay Area
Megabubble Appreciation Rates
                                                                   
                                                                      Created : June 15, 2005
       << Back Home                                    *** Last Updated : May 24, 2008

Data Obtained from Office Of The Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

To see how a $100 investment in a Bay Area Home in 1980, 
has grown over the years, Click Here.
Year Qtr San Francisco
San Mateo		 San Jose
Santa Clara		 Oakland
Fremont		 Quarterly
Inflation
1981 1 7.06 13.93 12.59 11.24
1981 2 5.54 13.42 9.77 9.77
1981 3 1.5 10.94 8.83 10.83
1981 4 1.0 8.87 7.34 9.55
1982 1 -0.98 2.9 2.97 7.59
1982 2 -1.13 -1.05 1.59 6.75
1982 3 2.71 -1.0 0.81 5.77
1982 4 0.2 -2.52 -2.14 4.51
1983 1 8.35 1.98 1.95 3.59
1983 2 8.02 3.3 2 3.34
1983 3 4.68 1.96 1.57 2.62
1983 4 7.06 3.74 4.65 3.3
1984 1 2.71 4.46 2.53 4.53
1984 2 3.76 4.96 2.83 4.33
1984 3 4.26 6.25 3.9 4.25
1984 4 5.6 7.37 4.21 4.08
1985 1 6.71 6.93 6.12 3.58
1985 2 6.4 8.09 6.27 3.74
1985 3 8.27 8.44 7.49 3.34
1985 4 9.75 7.8 6.97 3.51
Year Qtr San Francisco
San Mateo		 San Jose
Santa Clara		 Oakland
Fremont		 Quarterly
Inflation
1986 1 9.02 7.76 6.14 3.08
1986 2 9.94 6.62 7.64 1.61
1986 3 10.57 7 7.2 1.63
1986 4 12.15 7.49 8.28 1.28
1987 1 14.54 7.75 9.18 2.19
1987 2 14.93 8.56 9.46 3.76
1987 3 16.82 9.29 9.85 4.19
1987 4 17.96 10.12 9.53 4.49
1988 1 19.85 12.19 10.52 3.97
1988 2 22.66 15.6 12.16 3.91
1988 3 23.31 19.87 13.59 4.1
1988 4 25.62 25.53 16.88 4.3
1989 1 23.57 29.65 18.6 4.82
1989 2 23.88 32.78 21.68 5.21
1989 3 22.52 33.09 24.32 4.67
1989 4 16.44 25.71 22.14 4.59
1990 1 13.22 16.7 18.6 5.23
1990 2 6.18 6.57 11.64 4.58
1990 3 1.18 -1.58 5.17 5.53
1990 4 -2.79 -5.88 1.18 6.22
       
Year Qtr San Francisco
San Mateo		 San Jose
Santa Clara		 Oakland
Fremont		 Quarterly
Inflation
1991 1 -4.99 -6.22 -1.47 5.28
1991 2 -5.07 -5.19 -2.42 4.84
1991 3 -4.88 -3.6 -2.45 3.87
1991 4 -1.69 -1.03 -0.71 2.99
1992 1 -0.92 -0.78 -0.37 2.86
1992 2 -1.02 -1 -0.09 3.09
1992 3 -0.85 -1.42 -0.09 3.1
1992 4 -2.27 -1.8 -1.3 3.05
1993 1 -2.63 -2.31 -1.74 3.19
1993 2 -2.37 -2.25 -1.62 3.15
1993 3 -2.73 -2.74 -2.27 2.74
1993 4 -2.11 -2.77 -2.12 2.72
1994 1 -1.36 -2.15 -1.75 2.51
1994 2 -1.61 -2.24 -2.9 2.37
1994 3 -1.96 -2.09 -3.57 2.87
1994 4 -2.91 -1.59 -4.67 2.65
1995 1 -1.41 -1.09 -4.03 2.83
1995 2 -0.17 0.85 -1.59 3.09
1995 3 1.13 1.95 -0.23 2.63
1995 4 1.93 2.43 1.09 2.65
Year Qtr San Francisco
San Mateo		 San Jose
Santa Clara		 Oakland
Fremont		 Quarterly
Inflation
1996 1 0.88 3.07 1.59 2.74
1996 2 0.5 3.17 -0.48 2.84
1996 3 0.8 4.19 -0.87 2.94
1996 4 2.2 5.23 -0.41 3.18
1997 1 3.88 7.55 0.21 2.94
1997 2 6.7 10.83 3.09 2.34
1997 3 8.7 12.01 5.57 2.2
1997 4 9.94 13.26 7.53 1.87
1998 1 10.82 13.67 8.73 1.46
1998 2 11.39 13.33 9.82 1.6
1998 3 12.23 14.35 10.36 1.59
1998 4 11.33 13.09 9.94 1.54
1999 1 11.13 11.11 9.95 1.66
1999 2 11.78 9.94 9.97 2.1
1999 3 12.86 11.06 11.36 2.34
1999 4 16.63 13.62 13.21 2.61
2000 1 20.77 21.59 17.64 3.24
2000 2 24.0 26.94 21.17 3.33
2000 3 23.85 28.16 22.04 3.5
2000 4 21.94 28.77 22.86 3.43 

Note : Annual Rate Of Inflation for 1980 is 13.58%, 1981 is 10.35%. That would explain
       the double digit appreciation rates in 1981.
Year Qtr San Francisco
San Mateo		 San Jose
Santa Clara		 Oakland
Fremont		 Inflation
2001 1 19.1 23.15 21.08 3.39
2001 2 13.78 16.74 18.18 3.37
2001 3 9.56 8.44 14.58 2.69
2001 4 5.03 1.01 10.18 1.86
2002 1 2.82 -2.47 7.33 1.25
2002 2 3.32 -1.96 6.66 1.29
2002 3 5.0 1.34 7.4 1.58
2002 4 7.06 5.19 9.73 2.2
2003 1 6.63 5.14 9.25 2.86
2003 2 4.66 2.32 6.85 2.12
2003 3 3.28 0.84 6.17 2.19
2003 4 5.69 1.99 8.52 1.89
2004 1 6.16 3.34 8.12 1.78
2004 2 10.0 7.46 12.9 2.86
2004 3 15.98 14.3 20.1 2.72
2004 4 15.39 14.38 18 3.32
2005 1 18.19 18.18 22.1 3.04
2005 2 19.65 21.54 23.65 2.94
2005 3 15.83 18.42 20.03 3.83
2005 4 17.0 20.76 21.84 3.74
Year Qtr San Francisco
San Mateo		 San Jose
Santa Clara		 Oakland
Fremont		 Inflation
2006 1 14.85 16.67 18.25 3.65
2006 2 9.42 11.22 11.97 4.01
2006 3 7.22 8.58 6.47 3.34
2006 4 2.06 4.19 1.71 1.94
2007 1 1.32 2.27 -0.9 2.43
2007 2 -0.15 1.04 -3.6 2.65
2007 3 1.29 -0.96 -6.4 2.36
2007 4 -1.21 -2.49 -7.89 3.98
2008 1 -3.25 -3.59 -9.86 3.98
2008 2 ? ? ? ?
2008 3 ? ? ? ?
2008 4 ? ? ? ?
2009 1 ? ? ? ?
2009 2 ? ? ? ?
2009 3 ? ? ? ?
2009 4 ? ? ? ?
2010 1 ? ? ? ?
2010 2 ? ? ? ?
2010 3 ? ? ? ?
2010 4 ? ? ? ?
        
  San Francisco Chronicle - Neighborhood Homes Sold






 Color Coding : 

 New Business Cycle, Appreciation 
 Equals Inflation. 

 Appreciation Greater Than Inflation,
 under 10%. Foundation of The Bubble. 

 Runaway Appreciation. Creation of The Bubble,
 between 10% and 20%. 

 Bubble's Peak, over 20%. 

 Market Stalling, Plateau,
 Year-Over-Year Appreciation Stops. 

 Year-Over-Year Appreciation approaches 0%. 

 Bubble Busted, Recession, -ve appreciation.  

 Recovery, +ve appreciation again.

 Small Decline.

 New Business Cycle, Appreciation 
 Equals Inflation.  
 [ Or is it? It seems more like an extension 
 of the Current Business Cycle. Like the Last
 Cycle, prices should have dropped in the Red.
 But thanks to low interest rates, speculators 
 and investors. A Bubble starts turning into
 a Mega Bubble.]

 Foundation of The Mega Bubble,
 upto 10%. 

 Creation of The Mega Bubble, 
 between 10% and 15%. 

 Mega Bubble's Peak, Over 15%.

 Compare this with Southern California's
 Business Cycles :

    Southern California : The 1992 Recession        


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             Copyright © 2005 by Author. This material may be distributed only subject
             to the terms and conditions set forth in the Open Publication License.