Will The 1992 So Cal Recession Be Repeated? 
                                                                   
                                                                     Created : June 13, 2005
       << Back Home                                    *** Last Updated : Feb 24, 2009


            Most of us do not remember the Last Recession resulting from a Real Estate Bubble
       Bust. I have pulled out historical data from OFHEO's website about Southern California
       Home Price Appreciation Rates.

            How a $100 grew as investment in a Southern California home, and also adjusted
       for inflation. By the end of the last cycle, home investment had barely beaten inflation.

            Notice the stark Similarity Between The Last and The Current Business Cycle.
       But this time the expansion / appreciation has gone for much longer than the previous
       cycle. The resulting recession will also be equally long and painful.





           Northern California : San Francisco Bay Area Mega Bubble Appreciation Rates


              

                

                  Last Business Cycle
                

                

                  Year-Q
                  Rates
                  Values
                

                

                  Los

                  Angeles		
                  San

                  Diego		
                  Orange

                  County		
                  Infl.
                  Los

                  Angeles		
                  San

                  Diego		
                  Orange

                  County		
                  Infl.
                

                

                  1985-1
                  3.57
                  3.82
                  2.99
                  3.58
                  100.00
                  100.00
                  100.00
                  100.00
                

                

                  1985-2
                  5.03
                  4.77
                  2.83
                  3.74
                  101.49
                  101.74
                  100.49
                  100.93
                

                

                  1985-3
                  6.15
                  5.89
                  3.33
                  3.35
                  103.82
                  103.90
                  102.24
                  101.78
                

                

                  1985-4
                  6.90
                  4.57
                  4.14
                  3.51
                  105.22
                  103.94
                  103.11
                  102.67
                

                

                  1986-1
                  6.23
                  6.24
                  4.30
                  3.09
                  106.23
                  106.24
                  104.30
                  103.46
                

                

                  1986-2
                  6.75
                  5.93
                  5.34
                  1.62
                  108.34
                  107.78
                  105.87
                  103.88
                

                

                  1986-3
                  7.02
                  6.16
                  5.41
                  1.63
                  111.11
                  110.30
                  107.78
                  104.30
                

                

                  1986-4
                  8.47
                  7.86
                  7.26
                  1.28
                  114.14
                  112.12
                  110.61
                  104.64
                

                

                  1987-1
                  11.19
                  8.02
                  8.58
                  2.2
                  118.12
                  114.77
                  113.25
                  105.21
                

                

                  1987-2
                  12.29
                  8.78
                  9.95
                  3.76
                  121.67
                  117.25
                  116.40
                  106.20
                

                

                  1987-3
                  14.07
                  8.86
                  12.10
                  4.19
                  126.75
                  120.08
                  120.82
                  107.31
                

                

                  1987-4
                  15.60
                  9.59
                  12.87
                  4.5
                  131.96
                  122.88
                  124.84
                  108.52
                

                

                  1988-1
                  16.88
                  10.18
                  14.33
                  3.97
                  138.07
                  126.45
                  129.49
                  109.60
                

                

                  1988-2
                  19.02
                  11.17
                  16.61
                  3.92
                  144.81
                  130.35
                  135.74
                  110.67
                

                

                  1988-3
                  20.82
                  13.35
                  20.12
                  4.11
                  153.14
                  136.12
                  145.14
                  111.81
                

                

                  1988-4
                  23.59
                  17.62
                  25.24
                  4.31
                  163.09
                  144.54
                  156.35
                  113.02
                

                

                  1989-1
                  24.28
                  20.16
                  26.64
                  4.83
                  171.60
                  151.95
                  164.00
                  114.38
                

                

                  1989-2
                  24.94
                  22.49
                  26.62
                  5.22
                  180.94
                  159.67
                  171.89
                  115.87
                

                

                  1989-3
                  24.19
                  23.13
                  22.84
                  4.68
                  190.20
                  167.61
                  178.30
                  117.23
                

                

                  1989-4
                  19.97
                  19.23
                  16.06
                  4.6
                  195.68
                  172.35
                  181.47
                  118.58
                

                

                  1990-1
                  15.03
                  14.61
                  11.15
                  5.23
                  197.40
                  174.16
                  182.30
                  120.13
                

                

                  1990-2
                  9.04
                  9.34
                  5.39
                  4.58
                  197.31
                  174.60
                  181.16
                  121.50
                

                

                  1990-3
                  3.76
                  5.35
                  1.07
                  5.53
                  197.37
                  176.59
                  180.21
                  123.18
                

                

                  1990-4
                  -0.50
                  1.46
                  -1.91
                  6.22
                  194.70
                  174.86
                  178.00
                  125.10
                

                

                  1991-1
                  -1.44
                  0.50
                  -3.19
                  5.29
                  194.54
                  175.04
                  176.48
                  126.75
                

                

                  1991-2
                  -2.65
                  -0.42
                  -3.12
                  4.85
                  192.07
                  173.86
                  175.50
                  128.29
                

                

                  1991-3
                  -2.89
                  -1.62
                  -2.37
                  3.88
                  191.65
                  173.72
                  175.92
                  129.53
                

                

                  1991-4
                  -0.55
                  -0.08
                  -0.31
                  2.99
                  193.62
                  174.72
                  177.44
                  130.50
                

                

                  1992-1
                  -0.97
                  -0.51
                  -0.15
                  2.87
                  192.64
                  174.14
                  176.20
                  131.44
                

                

                  1992-2
                  -1.01
                  -0.66
                  -0.51
                  3.1
                  190.13
                  172.71
                  174.59
                  132.46
                

                

                  1992-3
                  -1.54
                  -0.79
                  -1.21
                  3.1
                  188.70
                  172.33
                  173.78
                  133.48
                

                

                  1992-4
                  -3.86
                  -2.20
                  -3.52
                  3.05
                  186.13
                  170.87
                  171.18
                  134.50
                

                

                  1993-1
                  -5.58
                  -3.08
                  -4.33
                  3.2
                  181.89
                  168.76
                  168.57
                  135.58
                

                

                  1993-2
                  -5.89
                  -3.15
                  -4.74
                  3.15
                  178.92
                  167.27
                  166.32
                  136.65
                

                

                  1993-3
                  -6.73
                  -3.71
                  -5.59
                  2.75
                  176.00
                  165.93
                  164.06
                  137.59
                

                

                  1993-4
                  -6.59
                  -3.11
                  -5.26
                  2.73
                  173.85
                  165.55
                  162.16
                  138.52
                

                

                  1994-1
                  -5.69
                  -2.77
                  -5.07
                  2.52
                  171.53
                  164.07
                  160.03
                  139.40
                

                

                  1994-2
                  -8.20
                  -3.83
                  -6.19
                  2.38
                  164.24
                  160.85
                  156.01
                  140.23
                

                

                  1994-3
                  -8.62
                  -4.00
                  -6.13
                  2.88
                  160.81
                  159.29
                  153.99
                  141.24
                

                

                  1994-4
                  -9.60
                  -4.75
                  -6.61
                  2.65
                  157.16
                  157.67
                  151.43
                  142.17
                

                

                  1995-1
                  -9.37
                  -4.14
                  -5.96
                  2.84
                  155.45
                  157.28
                  150.49
                  143.18
                

                

                  1995-2
                  -4.35
                  -1.52
                  -2.72
                  3.09
                  157.09
                  158.40
                  151.75
                  144.29
                

                

                  1995-3
                  -0.68
                  0.33
                  -1.14
                  2.64
                  159.70
                  159.83
                  152.23
                  145.24
                

                

                  1995-4
                  1.94
                  1.30
                  0.66
                  2.65
                  160.22
                  159.73
                  152.44
                  146.20
                

                

                  1996-1
                  2.86
                  1.69
                  1.19
                  2.74
                  159.89
                  159.94
                  152.28
                  147.20
                

                

                  1996-2
                  -0.72
                  -0.66
                  -0.86
                  2.85
                  155.96
                  157.34
                  150.44
                  148.25
                

                

                  1996-3
                  -3.01
                  -1.69
                  -1.22
                  2.94
                  154.89
                  157.12
                  150.37
                  149.34
                

                

                  1996-4
                  -2.59
                  -0.65
                  -0.70
                  3.19
                  156.07
                  158.68
                  151.37
                  150.53
                

                

                  1997-1
                  -2.23
                  -0.63
                  -0.35
                  2.94
                  156.32
                  158.91
                  151.73
                  151.64
                

                

                  1997-2
                  0.38
                  2.02
                  1.44
                  2.34
                  156.56
                  160.53
                  152.61
                  152.53
                

              

            		
            
              

              

                

                  Current Business Cycle
                

                

                  Year-Q
                  Rates
                  Values
                

                

                  Los

                  Angeles		
                  San

                  Diego		
                  Orange

                  County		
                  Infl.
                  Los

                  Angeles		
                  San

                  Diego		
                  Orange

                  County		
                  Infl.
                

                

                  1997-3
                  3.28
                  4.20
                  3.54
                  2.2
                  100.00
                  100.00
                  100.00
                  100.00
                

                

                  1997-4
                  5.00
                  4.71
                  4.61
                  1.87
                  102.44
                  101.49
                  101.71
                  100.46
                

                

                  1998-1
                  7.51
                  7.14
                  7.11
                  1.46
                  105.06
                  103.99
                  104.38
                  100.83
                

                

                  1998-2
                  9.69
                  9.08
                  9.73
                  1.6
                  107.35
                  106.95
                  107.55
                  101.23
                

                

                  1998-3
                  10.13
                  10.48
                  11.42
                  1.6
                  110.13
                  110.49
                  111.42
                  101.64
                

                

                  1998-4
                  10.01
                  11.19
                  12.25
                  1.55
                  112.70
                  112.85
                  114.18
                  102.03
                

                

                  1999-1
                  8.92
                  10.54
                  11.27
                  1.67
                  114.44
                  114.96
                  116.16
                  102.46
                

                

                  1999-2
                  7.71
                  9.72
                  10.16
                  2.11
                  115.63
                  117.35
                  118.49
                  103.00
                

                

                  1999-3
                  6.42
                  9.66
                  8.91
                  2.34
                  117.21
                  121.17
                  121.36
                  103.60
                

                

                  1999-4
                  5.61
                  10.30
                  7.99
                  2.62
                  119.02
                  124.48
                  123.31
                  104.28
                

                

                  2000-1
                  7.02
                  13.82
                  10.24
                  3.24
                  122.47
                  130.86
                  128.06
                  105.12
                

                

                  2000-2
                  7.15
                  14.74
                  10.48
                  3.33
                  123.91
                  134.66
                  130.91
                  106.00
                

                

                  2000-3
                  8.10
                  14.99
                  10.73
                  3.51
                  126.71
                  139.34
                  134.39
                  106.93
                

                

                  2000-4
                  8.89
                  15.42
                  11.90
                  3.43
                  129.61
                  143.69
                  137.99
                  107.85
                

                

                  2001-1
                  8.85
                  13.46
                  10.36
                  3.39
                  133.32
                  148.48
                  141.33
                  108.76
                

                

                  2001-2
                  9.98
                  13.31
                  10.86
                  3.38
                  136.28
                  152.59
                  145.13
                  109.68
                

                

                  2001-3
                  9.96
                  12.64
                  11.03
                  2.7
                  139.34
                  156.97
                  149.22
                  110.42
                

                

                  2001-4
                  10.01
                  11.79
                  10.33
                  1.86
                  142.60
                  160.64
                  152.25
                  110.93
                

                

                  2002-1
                  10.51
                  11.94
                  11.17
                  1.25
                  147.34
                  166.22
                  157.12
                  111.28
                

                

                  2002-2
                  12.37
                  13.97
                  12.83
                  1.3
                  153.15
                  173.92
                  163.75
                  111.64
                

                

                  2002-3
                  14.14
                  15.98
                  13.96
                  1.59
                  159.06
                  182.06
                  170.06
                  112.09
                

                

                  2002-4
                  15.12
                  17.20
                  14.98
                  2.2
                  164.16
                  188.28
                  175.06
                  112.70
                

                

                  2003-1
                  14.44
                  16.67
                  14.46
                  2.87
                  168.63
                  193.95
                  179.85
                  113.51
                

                

                  2003-2
                  12.79
                  14.05
                  12.33
                  2.13
                  172.75
                  198.36
                  183.95
                  114.11
                

                

                  2003-3
                  13.06
                  12.86
                  12.23
                  2.2
                  179.83
                  205.48
                  190.87
                  114.74
                

                

                  2003-4
                  17.75
                  16.69
                  17.01
                  1.9
                  193.31
                  219.71
                  204.85
                  115.29
                

                

                  2004-1
                  19.37
                  17.78
                  18.88
                  1.79
                  201.31
                  228.44
                  213.82
                  115.80
                

                

                  2004-2
                  24.11
                  22.65
                  24.44
                  2.87
                  214.42
                  243.30
                  228.92
                  116.63
                

                

                  2004-3
                  31.63
                  31.35
                  32.59
                  2.73
                  236.72
                  269.92
                  253.08
                  117.43
                

                

                  2004-4
                  26.84
                  26.68
                  27.14
                  3.32
                  245.21
                  278.34
                  260.47
                  118.41
                

                

                  2005-1
                  26.82
                  25.79
                  25.47
                  3.04
                  255.32
                  287.37
                  268.29
                  119.31
                

                

                  2005-2
                  25.82
                  21.20
                  23.48
                  2.95
                  269.80
                  294.89
                  282.68
                  120.19
                

                

                  2005-3
                  20.14
                  11.94
                  16.76
                  3.83
                  284.40
                  302.17
                  295.51
                  121.34
                

                

                  2005-4
                  23.38
                  10.87
                  19.11
                  3.74
                  302.54
                  308.61
                  310.25
                  122.47
                

                

                  2006-1
                  23.19
                  7.75
                  19.65
                  3.75
                  314.55
                  309.66
                  321.04
                  123.62
                

                

                  2006-2
                  19.49
                  4.69
                  15.15
                  4.01
                  322.39
                  308.73
                  325.52
                  124.86
                

                

                  2006-3
                  15.33
                  1.86
                  10.14
                  3.34
                  328.02
                  307.82
                  325.49
                  125.90
                

                

                  2006-4
                  8.86
                  -1.15
                  4.62
                  1.94
                  329.35
                  305.04
                  324.61
                  126.51
                

                

                  2007-1
                  4.43
                  -2.87
                  -0.06
                  2.43
                  328.48
                  300.75
                  320.82
                  127.28
                

                

                  2007-2
                  1.46
                  -4.35
                  -2.74
                  2.65
                  327.12
                  295.28
                  316.57
                  128.12
                

                

                  2007-3
                  -1.98
                  -7.06
                  -5.55
                  2.36
                  321.50
                  286.07
                  307.41
                  128.88
                

                

                  2007-4
                  -4.88
                  -8.38
                  -8.23
                  3.98
                  313.26
                  279.47
                  297.89
                  130.16
                

                

                  2008-1
                  -8.99
                  -10.73
                  -12.17
                  4.11
                  298.94
                  268.45
                  281.76
                  131.50
                

                

                  2008-2
                  -14.95
                  -15.23
                  -16.75
                  4.38
                  278.20
                  250.30
                  263.54
                  132.94
                

                

                  2008-3
                  -19.00
                  -18.03
                  -18.36
                  5.3
                  260.39
                  234.48
                  250.94
                  134.70
                

                

                  2008-4
                  -19.76
                  -18.02
                  -18.21
                  1.61
                  251.33
                  229.08
                  243.62
                  135.24
                

                

                  2009-1
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                

                

                  2009-2
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                

                

                  2009-3
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                

                

                  2009-4
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                  ?
                

              

            		
          

        

      		
    

    

      
        

          
        


      		
    

    

      
        

        

          

            
              

                        Color Scheme 

 New Business Cycle, Appreciation Equals Inflation. 

 Appreciation Greater Than Inflation, under 10%. 

 Runaway Appreciation, Foundation of The Bubble, between 10% and 20%.

 Bubble's Peak, over 20%. 

 Market Stalling, Plateau, Year-Over-Year Appreciation Stops. 

 Year-Over-Year Appreciation approaches 0%. 

 Bubble Busted, Recession, -ve appreciation.  

 Recovery , +ve appreciation again.


            		
          

        

      		
    

    

      
        

          

            
              
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   Copyright © 2005 by Author. This material may be distributed only subject
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