The following table is the annual percentage
change in Housing and Population for Texas and
the US since 1980.
The above graph is based on this table.
| Year |
US (%Growth) |
TX (%Growth) |
| Pop |
Hsg |
Pop |
Hsg |
| 1981 |
1.29 |
1.77 |
3.63 |
3.5 |
| 1982 |
2.26 |
2.89 |
7.75 |
6.45 |
| 1983 |
3.2 |
4.01 |
10.7 |
10.56 |
| 1984 |
4.1 |
5.73 |
12.49 |
15.92 |
| 1985 |
5.02 |
7.6 |
14.36 |
19.91 |
| 1986 |
6 |
9.48 |
16.39 |
22.7 |
| 1987 |
6.95 |
11.38 |
16.81 |
24.47 |
| 1988 |
7.92 |
13.05 |
17.13 |
25.33 |
| 1989 |
8.95 |
14.6 |
18.11 |
25.91 |
| 1990 |
10.12 |
15.67 |
19.79 |
26.33 |
| 1991 |
11.3 |
17.21 |
21.86 |
27.3 |
| 1992 |
12.57 |
18.21 |
24.04 |
28.18 |
| 1993 |
13.79 |
19.35 |
26.48 |
29.49 |
| 1994 |
14.91 |
20.79 |
28.88 |
31.25 |
| 1995 |
16 |
22.39 |
31.28 |
33.36 |
| 1996 |
17.08 |
23.96 |
33.57 |
35.65 |
| 1997 |
18.2 |
25.58 |
36.03 |
38.14 |
| 1998 |
19.29 |
27.25 |
38.53 |
40.73 |
| 1999 |
20.37 |
29.3 |
40.87 |
44.25 |
| 2000 |
24.56 |
31.5 |
47.23 |
47.76 |
| 2001 |
25.85 |
33.3 |
49.94 |
50.66 |
| 2002 |
27.1 |
35 |
52.67 |
53.44 |
| 2003 |
28.36 |
36.8 |
55.34 |
56.34 |
| 2004 |
29.62 |
38.7 |
58.06 |
59.45 |
| 2005 |
30.83 |
40.84 |
60.65 |
62.68 |
| 2006 |
32.15 |
| 2007 |
33.13 |
44.66 |
67.99 |
70.01 |
| 2008 |
34.21 |
45.98 |
70.96 |
73.00 |
Where does your state stand in over supply? FL - GA - NV - AZ CA - MA - NY - IL
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I have always argued that Housing Growth needs to be in
line with Population Growth.
But as the above graph clearly indicates, we have been
constructing more homes in the United States, than we can
find people to live in them.
Texas went through a Housing Bubble during the Oil Boom
of the 80's. It built a tremendous over supply which was not
completely absorbed until the mid 90's.
With the Oil Bust, home prices plunged. Housing boom
went bust. The state learnt a valuable lesson in economics.
Texans still have it in their memories. Which has kept them
from speculating again in the housing market.
As a result, Texas housing market continues to be the
most affordable in the Nation.
In the Five Million or more Metro Areas, Dallas has a
NAR median of 147K and Houston 145K, as of 2005-Q3.
Compare that to San Francisco 726K, and San Diego 615K.
Texas over supply peaked at a differnce of more than 8
(25.33 - 17.13) in 1988. New Housing construction remained
nearly zero for several years that followed.
The difference dropped to a low of 0.5 (47.23 - 47.76)
in 2000, which pretty much marks the absorption of excess
housing from that boom. The difference started increasing
again since then.
In 2005, that difference for the US was at 10 (40.84 -
30.83). It will be even greater in 2006, a possible peak.
As Texas depleted it's over supply with a major housing
downturn. It took 15 years for housing growth to come back
in line with population growth again, since the peak of the
boom in 1986.
Texas could be a model for what is in store for the
rest of the country.
How long will it take for the US to undergo the same
correction?
Twenty years from now, Home Prices else where in the
country will look a lot more like those of Dallas and
Houston.
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