For a long time Las Vegas Housing Market defied odds for a decline. And now I think I may
have figured out what is happening here. Look at the graph below. It looks like the appreciation
of second half of 2004 got preponed into the first half itself and resulted in a near vertical
price rise for those six months.
The flattening of prices in the second half of 2004 created a false top. Then in 2005 prices
started to rise again. If we picked Oct 04 as the peak and the mirror, you can see what is the
resultant down cycle. Which kinda puts Las Vegas price peak a year and half ahead of the rest
of the country. And is obviously misleading.
Now I have a plotted the green line to show what would an ideal appreciation during 2004 would
look like. And then picking May of 2006 as the peak and mirror, the blue line is the mirror
reflection of the idealised appreciation. What an excellent bell shaped graph we get?
So far the actual Median is in good agreement with the projected blue line. Will it continue
to do so? I will plot the actual Median in the coming months/years and we will find out.
Legal Disclaimer : This is NOT investment advice. This is for information and entertainment purposes only.
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