What Happens In Vegas, (Not Always) Stays In Vegas

<< Back Home                                      Created : Feb 15, 2007
                                              *** Last Updated : Dec 30, 2010

           For a long time Las Vegas Housing Market defied odds for a decline. And now I think I may 
       have figured out what is happening here. Look at the graph below. It looks like the appreciation 
       of second half of 2004 got preponed into the first half itself and resulted in a near vertical
       price rise for those six months.

          The flattening of prices in the second half of 2004 created a false top. Then in 2005 prices 
       started to rise again. If we picked Oct 04 as the peak and the mirror, you can see what is the 
       resultant down cycle. Which kinda puts Las Vegas price peak a year and half ahead of the rest 
       of the country. And is obviously misleading. 

          Now I have a plotted the green line to show what would an ideal appreciation during 2004 would
      look like. And then picking May of 2006 as the peak and mirror, the blue line is the mirror
      reflection of the idealised appreciation. What an excellent bell shaped graph we get?

          So far the actual Median is in good agreement with the projected blue line. Will it continue
      to do so? I will plot the actual Median in the coming months/years and we will find out.

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What Happens In Vegas

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